On January 9, 2026, the Chinese Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced adjustments to the export tax rebate policy for solar-related products. Starting from April 1, the value-added tax export rebate for solar modules will be completely abolished, and the rebate for battery products will be gradually reduced, with a complete elimination expected by 2027. This policy will significantly change the export cost structure for Chinese manufacturers. Industry estimates suggest that the profit per mainstream 210-size module will decrease by approximately 1,050 to 1,160 yen, and for exports worth about 22.8 million yen, the previous rebate of around 2.05 million yen will disappear, resulting in an effective cost increase of about 9%. Additionally, raw material prices continue to rise. The prices of polycrystalline silicon and silicon wafers have recently increased by about 8 to 10%, and the price of battery cells has reached over 0.4 yuan/W (approximately 9.1 yen/W). Silver prices have also risen to over 19,000 yuan/kg (approximately 433,000 yen), pushing up module costs. Given this background, the cost increase due to the abolition of the export tax rebate is likely to be passed on to product prices. It should be noted that this policy will apply based on the export customs clearance date, so products cleared before April 1 will still be eligible for the previous rebate rate. (1 yuan ≈ 22.8 yen)